Managing Uncertainty in Wind Investment and Financing
How do you accurately quantify performance uncertainty? If you are evaluating two wind projects with similar wind production profiles and one has an energy estimate uncertainty of 10% and the other has 8%, you will likely choose the one with lower uncertainty. But how were those numbers calculated? Can you actually trust the energy estimates coming across your desk?
Some level of uncertainty is
introduced at every step of the wind due diligence process from the measurements
collected during the met campaign to the work done by analysts to calculate the
final P50 and P90 values.
Vaisala’s comprehensive due
diligence approach evaluates hundreds of sources of uncertainty throughout every
step of the assessment process and presents risk in understandable, intuitive terms using our proprietary Energy Risk Framework.
- Read "Avoiding Surprises at the Investment Table," an article discussing advanced approaches to uncertainty modeling published by Windpower Engineering & Development